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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.