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Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."